An all too familiar sight at 3 grounds around May.

Having been brave/foolish enough to try and predict the outcome of the race for the final Champions League place in the Premier League this season, I am this week further putting my neck on the block by attempting to make sense of the muddy waters of the relegation battle.

As we stand all of the teams in the bottom tier of the Premier League have 11 games to try and save their season (and in many senses the financial future of their clubs as well). As in previous seasons this involves the majority of the teams promoted from the Championship last season and the usual more-established Premier League clubs.

I speak on this subject as someone who supports one of these more-established teams who begin every season with one aim – to get to 40 points ASAP. This is the case for all Premier League teams outside of the so called “Big Four” as well as Spurs, Aston Villa, Manchester City and Everton. From experience most of the rest are of a similar standard and success or failure comes down to who is able to gain the most points from home games against teams outside of those eight top clubs. It is for this reason that Fulham, Blackburn and Stoke are not in the mire this season, but I am sure messrs Hodgson, Pulis and Allardyce will have as their number one aim for next season as being to get to 40 points.

Recent events at Portsmouth mean that once their nine point penalty is confirmed I am afraid that their relegation is a certainty. From what I have seen of Portsmouth they have actually looked better than their results have suggested, but as they are now doomed it leaves the remainder of teams fighting to not drop into two places.

At present Hull City occupy the final relegation place and currently sit on 24 points and it therefore seems fair enough to say that all teams up to and including West Ham who sit in 13th place on 27 points are well and truly involved in the battle. I will therefore try and assess the chances of each of the teams involved as they try and do everything to not finish in either 18th or 19th place.

Burnley currently occupy 19th place and after their tremendous start to the season they have slowly but surely fallen into the relegation zone as predicted before the season kicked off. The backbone to their initial success was the tremendous form achieved at their atmospheric home of Turf Moor. As hinted at earlier, it is usually home form that decides whether a team will be in the relegation mix by the time spring comes around but this has not been maintained and coupled with the fact that they show no sign of picking up any points away from home, they are deeply entrenched in the relegation battle. They lost their inspirational manager Owen Coyle to relegation rivals Bolton in January and by appointing Brian Laws as his successor the Burnley board seem to have accepted relegation as a distinct possibility. CONCLUSION: DOOMED

The current team below the dreaded dotted line is Hull City. The Tigers managed to stay up by the skin of their teeth last year courtesy of an amazing first half of the season. Since those heady days though they have been on a downward spiral with constant mutterings about their manager’s future and the financial viability of the club. They do though have Jimmy Bullard who is expected to return in the next few weeks and if they can keep him fit they do have a chance of climbing to safety. It will be close though as they appear to be a poor side and their January signing of the problematical Amr Zaki is unlikely to provide the necessary fire-power to comfortably pull away to the relative safety of lower mid-table. CONCLUSION: SAFE (JUST)

Mick McCarthy is certainly used to being involved in relegation battles after his time at Sunderland (usually ending unsuccessfully) so should be comfortable in handling the predicament his Wolves team currently find themselves in. Wolves have a number of good players and Kevin Doyle in particular continues to impress up front. However, their manager’s cautious approach means that goals are hard to come by and their hopes may rest on hoping Hull and Burnley continue to show no signs of reversing their poor form. CONCLUSION: DOWN AGAIN MICK

Wigan are well and truly involved in the relegation battle and are not helped by the fact that they play on the worst top flight pitch that I have ever seen. Wigan have a number of good players such as N’Zogbia, Rodallega and Victor Moses. There is though, a question as to whether these are the type of players really needed in a relegation battle when your Kevin Davies’s and Lee Cattermole’s are more the order of the day. They also have an inexperienced manager who seems determined to stick to his footballing principles. As Tony Mowbray found out at West Brom last year, whilst this is certainly admirable, it by no means guarantees good results. They should though just about survive on the basis that they do have more match-winners than a number of the teams around them. CONCLUSION: UNCONVINCINGLY SAFE

Bolton are certainly one of the teams who are used to this position and players such as Kevin Davies and Jussi Jaaskelainen should know what is required for the run-in. Having appeared resigned to relegation amongst a mood of anger and resentment under previous manager Gary Megson the atmosphere at the Reebok has certainly been rejuvenated since the appointment of Owen Coyle as manager in January. The change in manager can’t though disguise the fact that Megson left a poor team (with the exception of Gary Cahill, Jaaskelainen, Davies, Klasnic and the very impressive Chung-Yong-Lee) that will struggle. Their experience should though see them acquire the necessary points in the big games against their rivals to survive. CONCLUSION: A BATTLING SAFETY

If this column had been written in November, it would have been inconceivable to include Sunderland in any relegation debate. They have though failed to win any of their last 14 games and consequently are now right in the thick of it. This must be a great disappointment to their owner as a lot of money has been invested in the team but they seem little better than last year’s strugglers. They have the best striker of all their other rivals and on their day they are probably the best team of the bottom eight but a poor run can sap all confidence and they will now have to battle to stop themselves slipping further and prevent the previously unthinkable relegation from becoming a reality. CONCLUSION: SAFE (AMID QUESTIONS OF MR BRUCE)

The final contender is Gianfranco Zola’s West Ham. As with Hull City, it seems that relegation could spell financial disaster for West Ham in light of some crazy transfer dealings in the past. Due to the financial restrictions Zola has used his world contacts to sign a wide range of foreign player that on the whole seem relatively unimpressive. The one exception to this is Alessandro Diamanti who always seems to play well whenever I have had the opportunity to see the Hammers but the same can certainly not be said of Franco, Kovac and Jimenez. West Ham though do have good players such as Carlton Cole, Valon Behrami and the continually impressive Scott Parker that should see them survive and stave off financial meltdown (for now). CONCLUSION: SAFE

As with last week, I will attempt to estimate the bottom eight places as they will stand after 38 games:

13. West Ham
14. Bolton
15. Sunderland
16. Wigan
17. Hull City
18. Wolves
19. Burnley
20. Portsmouth.

Once again I recognise the opportunity for ridicule that this prediction is liable to lead to come May time but we shall see. Next week onto matters much more trivial – the race for the title.