Can Australia defend the Ashes?

Less then 24 hours to go now and I am cautiously excited. Only cautiously, because I think my subconscious is protecting me from any potential Pommy-Bashing that will undoubtedly come my way should England make a poor start to this series.

So, with less then a day to go, where do we stand? England announced their squad for the first test the other day with few surprises. Some may have argued for the inclusion of Steve Harmison after his performance for the Lions, but the selectors seem to be leaning towards playing 2 spinners for the first test. In the Australian camp, the major news is that Brett Lee will miss the first test, and possibly the second test with a side injury picked up in the warm up game. It is a bitter blow for the paceman who seemed to have done enough to regain his test berth. But Australia’s loss is England’s gain, I had the feeling that Lee’s pace and aggression would have been a crucial weapon for Australia. Stuart Clark looks set to replace him, and he is a heck of a replacement to have.

Superstitious England fans will be delighted to hear however, that Glenn McGrath has predicted a 5-0 whitewash for Australia. Cast your minds back 4 years and remember the last time he made that bold prediction. I seem to remember a certain key bowler picking up an injury on the eve of the first test also!

The Australian press and public are pretty confident of a comfortable win too. A recent analysis of the England team barely gave any player (aside from Flintoff and KP) marks above 6. I’m pretty sure they will be surprised though. There are several England players who are capable of excelling in this series, and I am certainly hoping that the Australian team themselves will underestimate England as much as the press.

Over in England, the focus is on how “poor” the Australians are now, and how much they will miss the likes of Gilchrist, Warne, McGrath et al. Whilst this is undoubtedly true, I have seen too many England-Australia sporting events now to know that this will almost certainly not be the case. Don’t be fooled England fans, this Aussie team is more then capable of a comfortable victory.

Hopefully, this will be a humdinger of a series. If England perform to the standard that they are capable of, then they have every chance of winning this, and winning it well. But, this is the pressure-cooker that is the Ashes, and English batsmen seem to have some sort of inbuilt self-destruct mechanism when confronted by Australian bowlers. I previously predicted a 2-2 draw and am still pretty confident of that. Some of my Australian colleagues reckon it will be 3-1, with 1 draw and England winning a dead test at the end. I think some of them may be surprised though. Bring on tomorrow.